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Answers: Is A Hurricane Likely To Ruin My Wedding?
By Jack Williams, USATODAY.com

		Hurricane Floyd batters Daytona Beach, Fla., in September 1999; not a day for an outdoor wedding on the beach.	Q: The buzz around my office is that there will be several major storms this hurricane season, possibly even in the Tampa Bay area. I am getting married this September and we have planned a beautiful outdoor ceremony. What are the chances of a hurricane hitting the Tampa Bay area at the end of September?
AP

A: No one knows because where and when a hurricane will hit can't be predicted more than maybe four or five days ahead of time.

It is true that the number of major hurricanes is expected to be higher than average this season, but this doesn't necessarily mean the Tampa Bay area is all that much more likely to be hit this year and during a "normal" season. (Related: 2003 hurricane season outlook).

Hurricane odds are tricky. Fortunately hurricanes are very rare events. The Tampa Bay area is a good example. The odds of a hurricane hitting any part of southern Florida, including the Tampa Bay area in any one year are among the highest in the USA — only Cape Hatteras, N.C. has higher odds. (Related: USA hurricane odds) and September is the height of the hurricane season. But, it's been a long time since a hurricane has directly hit the area.

All of this makes your question hard to answer. The odds are really small that a hurricane will come along to mess up your beautiful outdoor wedding. But, they are higher than they would be in, say, April or even November. I mention April and November because I just looked at the USATODAY.com guide to the month-to-month weather of Tampa and saw that these two months have the lowest rainfall and also much more comfortable humidity (on the average) than September.

In fact, September is Tampa's third wettest of the year, and the average humidity is also the third highest. (July and August tie for highest). In other words, ordinary thunderstorms are relatively likely to rain on your outdoor wedding, and even if that doesn't happen, you and your guests might long for air conditioning.

You might want to think of putting the wedding off until November. It's true that the hurricane season continues until Nov. 30, but since 1900 only four hurricanes have hit the USA in November, and they were all weak. (Related: November hurricanes). It's a tough decision, and I'm glad I don't have to make it.